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    一个公司的价值评估模型
    2018-2-23 15:09:38 来源:http://www.jnsymx.com
    我们惯常用规模和增速来评估一家公司,这其实只考察了公司的动能;其他诸如资本、商业模式、人才、上下游资源、客户和用户认知等,统统属于公司的势能。如同一个牌局里,动能是已经发生的牌面,势能意味着你有什么牌可以打,当然更重要。
    We are accustomed to scale and speed up to evaluate a company, which only investigates the kinetic energy of the company. Others such as capital, business mode, talent, upstream and downstream resources, customers and user cognition all belong to the potential energy of the company. As a game, the kinetic energy is already occurring face card, potential means you have what cards to play, of course, more important.
    不好的公司,是能量守恒的,只会把势能转变为动能,比如烧钱买量;而好的公司,能不断从外部吸收并转化能量。总结来看,好的公司大概具备以下几个特征
    The company is not good, the conservation of energy, only the potential energy into kinetic energy, such as burn buy; and a good company, can continue to absorb and transform energy from outside. In summary, a good company may have the following features
    1.获得外部势能效率更高
    1. higher external potential energy efficiency is higher
    首先是行业红利。比如智能机普及,设备嗷嗷待哺,造就了无数的互联网创业公司;再比如十年前开淘宝店,三年前做公众号,流量获取难度小,成本低,容易做起来。
    The first is the industry bonus. For example, the popularity of intelligent machines, equipment makes the Internet startups cry piteously for food, countless; for instance ten years ago opened a Taobao store, do public three years ago, traffic acquisition difficulty is small, low cost, easy to do.
    这两年,资本造就风口,抓住窗口期,起势很容易,比如共享单车/无人货架;另外,巨头相争,各自抢着用资源和资本笼络小弟,小公司也容易找到“好风凭借力”的机会。
    This year, the capital has outlet, seize the window, from the potential easily, such as shared bicycle / unmanned shelves; in addition, big fight, rushing to use their resources and capital to win over the younger, small companies are also easy to find "good wind force" opportunity.
    2.势能可积累,且持续贡献动能
    2. potential energy can be accumulated and continued to contribute to kinetic energy
    企业发展过程中,会陆续投入大量的资源。优秀的企业能够把这些势能通过某种形式,沉淀下来,并逐步成为企业的核心能力和护城河,持续贡献价值。

    In the process of enterprise development, a large number of resources will be invested in succession. Excellent enterprises can settle these potential energy through some form, and gradually become the core competence and moat of the enterprise, and continue to contribute to the value.

    JD投入巨资打造的自营商品和物流体系,可以为用户持续带来好的体验;分众跑马圈地抢来的商业电梯资源,可以持续作为盈利中心;Oppo/Vivo多年打造的渠道,也不是小米能够随便颠覆的。
    JD has invested heavily in self built goods and logistics system, which can continue to bring good experience for users. The commercial elevator resources grabbed by people's horses can continue to be a profit center, and Oppo/Vivo's many years' sales channels are not Millet's subversion.
    值得一提的是,公司的业务转型,原来产业网里的资源、用户认知都会推倒重来,是对公司势能的一次大规模核销,往往大伤。虽说不破不立,但破了可能就立不起来了。君不见,在FMCG历史上,即使是换包装这样的“小事”,也都鲜有成功案例。
    It is worth mentioning that the transformation of the company's business and the resources and user cognition in the original industrial network will lead to the overcoming. It is a massive verification of the potential energy of the company. It may be broken There's no making without breaking., but do not stand up. You do not see, in the history of FMCG, even if the "small things" such as changing packaging, there are few successful cases.
    3.能量在转化时,可以裂变放大
    3. energy can be fission amplification when the energy is converted
    直观的是看利润表。用户购买成本vs用户价值,产品综合成本vs售价,简单比大小,有盈利的话,每笔交易都是能量的放大。
    The most intuitive is to look at the profit statement. User purchase cost vs user value, product comprehensive cost vs price, simple size, profit, each transaction is the energy magnification.
    好的商业模式,一定是能支持这点的。比如“万能的淘宝”,商品多,用户可以多次转化,用户价值就高,这点小平台比不了。再比如微软,产品开发成本是天文数字,但是后续就能把几块钱的光盘卖到几千块,盈亏平衡后,每多卖一份都是在增加能量。
    A good business model is sure to support this. For example, "universal Taobao", a lot of goods, users can be transformed many times, the value of the user is high, this small platform can not be compared. For example, Microsoft, the cost of product development is astronomical, but then it can sell thousands of CDs to thousands of pieces. After break even, every sale is increasing energy.
    这也能说明公司的产品/服务为什么重要。产品不好,花钱获客,转化一次就跑了;产品好,形成复购,用户价值多次放大,更容易覆盖获客成本。如果能产生口碑,一传十十传百,能量在转化过程中,以滚雪球的方式裂变放大。
    This can also explain why the company's products / services are important. The product is not good, the money gets the guest, transforms once to run; the product is good, forms the complex purchase, the user value is magnified many times, and is easier to cover the customer's cost. If you can produce a reputation, twenty hundred, in the energy conversion process, the way to snowball fission amplification.
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